Archive for Pounds To Dollars Daily Chart

Pound Dollar Forecast 24 Mar 2011

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Thursday, March 24th, 2011
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Pound Dollar 24 Mar 2011

With this week’s data showing the UK inflation rate at almost 5% and likely to get worse, it is really only a matter of time before interest rates start to rise. The technical picture on the monthly gbp usd chart would seem to support this as the pair inch towards the 1.67 to 1.70 highs of 2009.  The only caveat to any continuation of this longer term bullish move would be if the usd index manages to hold the key 75 level and finally manages to find some traction for a move higher.

Why traders focus on headline inflation & why sterling rose this week.

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Pounds to dollars forecast – 16th November 2010

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Tuesday, November 16th, 2010
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Pounds to dollars daily chart - 16th November 2010

The pounds to dollars pair continued its recent sideways consolidation once again yesterday, ending the currency trading session with a relatively wide spread down candle closing at 1.6040, just below the 14 day moving average once again. Whilst the euro dollar has fallen sharply as the twin effects of a resurgent US currency and Euro zone fears of a bail out for Ireland work in tandem , the effects on cable have been muted, with UK sterling continuing to hold it’s own against the dollar. As such, the positive correlation between the two currency pairs appears to have broken down once again, and moved well away from the traditional 0.9 relationship. Indeed one only has to look at the euro vs pound chart to realise that the euro is under considerable pressure at present from several quarters.

From a technical perspective, there are now two key levels on the daily eur/usd chart, the first of which is the potential price support in the 1.6000 price area, and the second is the 40 day moving average, which now sits immediately below at 1.5909, and either of these could provide the necessary platform in any further move lower. The key to the longer term will be whether cable is able to break back above the 1.6200 price region and from there to retest the high of last week at 1.6299, but we should note that in the last five days we have seen three failures at the 1.6183, the last of these being on Friday, which suggests resistance in this region and a further short term pull back in due course.

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Pounds to Dollars Forex Forecast 10 Nov 2010

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Wednesday, November 10th, 2010
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Pounds to Dollars 10 Nov 2010

Unlike the euro vs dollar, the pounds to dollars pair has recovered much of yesterday’s lost ground which saw cable extend losses for a third trading session ending as wide spread down candle with small wicks to both the top and bottom.  Yesterday’s price action closed marginally above the USD1.60 price handle which coincided with a deep platform of support and, in addition, the low of the day at USD1.5951 also found strong support from the 14 day average which prevented a further fall.  Indeed this hinted at a possible recovery which duly arrived this morning with cable trading higher at USD1.6098 at time of writing and looking likely to hold above the 9 day moving average.  If this does indeed occur then this will signal a resumption of the longer term upwards trend and, as such, we can then expect to see the pair re-test the high of last week at USD1.6299.  Both the 14 and 40 day moving averages continue to point sharply higher and with the 200 day now beginning to turn this is adding further weight to our analysis.  However, the key point is to ensure the market closes all four moving averages and once complete then we can expect to see the pounds to dollars pair recover much of the last ground of the past few days as a US dollar decline resumes once again.

Sterling at six week high following BOE inflation report

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Pounds to Dollars Forecast 8 Nov 2010

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Monday, November 8th, 2010
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Pounds to Dollars 8 Nov 2010

The pounds to dollars pair closed last week on a mildly negative tone with Friday’s candle ending as a relatively wide spread down candle as the pair pushed further into the deep price candle between USD1.60 and USD1.67.  Friday’s pullback was prompted by a minor resurgence from the US dollar on the day, a theme which has continued in early trading this morning with the pound to dollar trading lower once again, having breached the USD1.62 price point, to trade at time of writing at USD1.6123.  The question now is the extent of the present re-tracement and immediately below the current price action we have several support mechanisms in place, not least of which are the 9 and 14 day moving averages along with a deep platform at the USD1.60 price region.  Indeed any, or all of these, could provide the requisite cushion as the longer term outlook for the pounds to dollars pair still remains bullish and the first of these to be tested will be the 9 day moving average which currently sits at USD1.6064 on the daily chart.  Should this hold firm then this will signal that the longer term bullish trend remains firmly in place and, as such, we can expect to see the trend of the past few months continue unabated as the pair push through the current deep congestion and on towards a breakout at the USD1.6854 high of late 2009.

Following last week’s hectic round of fundamental news, no least of which was the QE2 announcement by the FED and the better than expected nfp numbers, this week is relatively quiet with the main highlights being manufacturing production for the UK which is forecast to remain flat, and is coupled with the trade balance figures tomorrow.  This is followed on Wednesday by the BOE inflation report for the UK whilst in the US we have the trade balance figures and weekly unemployment claims.  Thursday and Friday will, no doubt, be dominated by the G20 meetings in Seoul and with Thursday’s public holiday in the US this week’s trading could be volatile and unpredictable.

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Pound to Dollar Forecast

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Thursday, November 4th, 2010
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Pounds to Dollars Chart 4 Nov 2010

The pounds to dollar pair has finally pulled away from the USD1.60 price level following yesterday’s FED statement ending the forex trading session as a relatively wide spread up candle closing at USD1.6106 and as such holding above the key USD1.6089 price handle.  As such we now have a deep platform of support at this important level which should provide the springboard for a sustained and longer term trend for cable as a result.  This bullish sentiment has spilled over into today’s forex trading session, helped further by the UK fundamental news, which has propelled the currency pair through the USD1.62 price zone to trade at USD1.6264 at time of writing.  The longer term outlook remains firmly bullish now that this breakout has been established and with the 9 day average now crossing above the 14 day average this is adding further weight to our analysis.  Looking ahead the US dollar will continue to decline over the next few weeks as the bond purchase programme gets under way, and should we see a breach of the USD1.6877 high of late 2009 then this could provide a further platform as the trend builds further and on towards the 200 week moving average which currently resides at USD1.75 on the weekly chart.  Tomorrow sees the monthly non farm payroll release which is expected to come in at 63k against last month’s -95k, with Wednesday’s ADP figures suggesting that the employment news may be mildly positive.  The headline unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 9.6%.

Pound surges as Bank leaves QE unchanged

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Forecast for the GBP/USD – 1st November 2010

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Monday, November 1st, 2010
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Pounds to Dollars 1 Nov 2010

The positive sentiment following Thursday’s wide spread up bar spilled over into Friday’s forex trading session with cable continuing its recent upwards momentum, breaking and holding above the psychological USD1.60 level to end at US1.6044.  On the day, cable recovered from a low of USD1.5876 as dollar weakness resumed once again and the candle created ended with a deep lower wick further confirming the bullish intent, which has continued in early trading this morning and taken cable to USD1.6075 at time of writing.  The moving averages below remain firmly supportive of the upwards trend at present and once the 9 day average crosses above the 14 day once again then this will complete the picture as we see cable begin to penetrate the deep resistance now ahead between the current price level and USD1.67.  Given the FED meeting where the QE2 is to be unveiled, we can expect to see sustained dollar weakness and a consequent move higher for the British Pound and the momentum generated by this release may be sufficient to propel the pair beyond the upper resistance area at USD1.67.

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