Pounds To Dollars - GBP/USD Daily Exchange Rates 18th June 2009

The pounds to dollars pair continues to consolidate sideways in a tight trading range with both the 9 and 14 day moving averages now virtually indistinguishable from one another.  Yesterday’s erratic price action was symptomatic with both the British Pound and US Dollar subject to the vagaries of the ebb and flow of fundamental news on the economic calendar which seems to oscillate between good and bad almost on an hourly basis.  The 1.66 price region remains the defining price level in the short term and should this be breached then it would provide the platform a move higher.  However, with dire fundamental news now emanating from the UK – this morning’s included retail sales, which were significantly worse at -0.6% (versus a forecast of +0.4%), a public sector borrowing figure apparently now out of control and industrial orders slumping, the British Pound has collapsed as a result falling over 200 pips on the news and as a consequence breaking below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages.

To summarize the fundamental news for the British Pound, the UK economy suffered a triple blow with poor retail sales, a sharp fall in lending to business and the highest public borrowing on record killing off any suggestion of “green shoots” and making the prospect of any increase in interest rates wishful thinking.  The most worrying element of this morning’s news is the public sector borrowing which if it continues at this rate will see not only the prospect of the IMF knocking on the door, but does not bode well for future sales of government debt.  The bad news is further compounded by the CBI Industrial Order Index which came in far worse than expected at -51 against a forecast of -45 indicating a slump in export orders, their weakest level in a decade after overseas demand for UK goods collapsed.  All this should be seen in the context of the Bank of England Gov Mervyn King’s comments at last night’s Mansion House speech in which he publicly stated that Britain’s recovery would be “protracted” and in direct contract with the Government’s view, which is predicting a return to growth by the end of this year.  However, this is  increasingly seen as too politically biased and merely a mechanism to hang onto power for as long as possible.  Meanwhile all the fundamental news for the US is covered in the Eurodollar site.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.