Pounds to Dollars Forex Analysis 16 Sep 2009

Pounds to Dollars Forex Analysis 16 Sep 2009

Forex Technical Analysis

Unlike the euro vs dollar which is benefitting from systemic dollar weakness, the pounds to dollars pair is failing to capitalise and remains waterlogged in the USD1.65 region and yesterday’s comments from BOE Governor King did little to help Sterling which reversed lower as a result.  Technically yesterday’s candle ended the forex trading session as a wide spread down bar which whilst negative in sentiment did manage to find a modicum of support later in the day from the 14 day moving average which suggests that we may see Sterling dragged higher in trading today.  The longer term picture remains the same in that only a break and hold above USD1.66 will signal any bullish move higher whilst a breach of the USD1.60 will indicate that a bearish sentiment towards Sterling is in the ascendency.  With all three moving averages now tightly bunched there is little that can be gained from these technical indicators until the current sideways consolidation comes to an end.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

Today’s fundamental news on the economic calendar for the UK and the US starts in the UK with data relating to the labour market.  The first number due is the claimant count change which is expected to come in at 24.7k against a previous of 24.9k and may show whether the rate at which jobs are being lost is finally beginning to slow.  Next we have the Average Earnings Index which details the cost of labour to businesses – this figure is considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation as when businesses have to pay higher salaries then this is inevitably passed onto the consumer.  The final element of this data set is the unemployment rate which is expected to be 8% against a previous of 7.8%.  Meanwhile you can find all the fundamental news items for the US on the main euro vs dollar site.