GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart 27th March 2009

GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart 27th March 2009

Now safely back in the arms of the downward sloping wedge (and I hope you followed my advice yesterday and made some pips shorting the pound) the pound continued its downward journey in this morning’s session where is has just retested the 1.4375 as outlined in yesterday’s post.  Yesterday’s price action closed marginally above the 9 day average with a candle with a deep upper wick suggesting this morning’s move lower and today’s candle has penetrated both the 9 and, more significantly, touched the 40 day moving average.

The pound was given a downward shove with the release of the current account figures which came in far worse than expected at -7.6 bn and is a figure which represents the difference between imports and exports and a much bigger deficit than expected.  The figure is directly linked to currency demand and a positive value indicates a flow of capital into the UK while a negative value indicates a net capital outflow, which if persistent may lead to a natural depreciation of the currency.

Meanwhile in the US the Core PCE price index came in marginally better than expected at 0.2% whilst personal spending came in on target at 0.2% as we now await the more significant UoM – University of Michigan consumer sentiment figures.  This indicator assesses consumer confidence regarding personal finance, business conditions and purchasing power based on several hundred telephone surveys of consumers.  It is particularly valued for its quick turnaround and is therefore considered on the foremost leading indicators of US consumer sentiment.  The headline figure is calculated by subtracting the percentage of unfavourable replies from the percentage of favourable ones.

For today’s trading I would suggest looking for further short opportunities, selling into the market on any uptick in the hourly chart.

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