GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart - 26th March 2009

GBP/USD Daily Candle Chart - 26th March 2009

All things being equal yesterday we should have seen a rally in the British Pound, helped in no small part by Mr Geithner’s trashing of the US dollar by seeming to take seriously the Chinese suggestion that the world should call time on the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency at some time in the future.  However, the UK has problems of its own – not least the market’s reaction to the failed Gilt auction – the first time this has happened since either 1995 or 2002 (depending on whose data you read).  As a result on the daily chart the pair closed with a bearish engulfing signal suggesting that the long downward slope is set to continue and that the recent rally of the past couple of weeks has temporarily stalled and over the next few days we could see a move back down to retest support at the 1.4375 region and if this is penetrated a further move lower to the 1.41 region.

Fundamental news in the economic calendar for this pair centres on retail sales for the UK – which were dire at -1.9% against a forecast of -0.3% and in the US the unemployment figures and final GDP figures both of which have come in more or less on target.  The market now waits for a scheduled appearance by Treasury Sec Geithner in front of the Financial Services Committee where he is expected to testify on the hot topic of Financial Market Regulation.

My suggestion for today is to attempt small shorts by using the hourly charts to time your entries and exits and take any profits off the table as quickly as possible, with a stop loss somewhere above 1.4642

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