Dollar Index Chart 27 Nov 2009

Dollar Index Chart 27 Nov 2009

A very messy technical picture for the pounds to USD  pair at the moment which has not been helped by the volatile trading conditions of Thursday and Friday which reacted the debt problems in the Middle East & the extent to which UK is involved.  The reaction was further exacerbated by the fact that the major markets in the US were closed for Thanskgiving. Indeed with many traders and investors spending Friday shopping on ‘Black Friday’ rather than trading, the markets assumed a holiday feel with and reacted accordingly on thin volumes. The technical picture is not helped by the continued and endless price consolidation at this level which shows no signs of abatting in the short term, with Thursday’s ‘bearish engulfing candle’ finding some support from the 40 day moving average which also assisted the price action on Friday, with the closing candle ending marginally higher but with a deep lower wick, suggesting that we may see a bounce higher once again in the early part of this week. Whether we see anything further than a re-test of the 1.68 price level seems unlikely at present, and with bot the 9 and 14 day moving averages turning lower once again, these technical indicators will provide the first test for any move higher in due course.

The only item of fundamental news for the UK today has been the consumer confidence data which not only came in far worse than expected at -17 as opposed to a forcast of -11 was also leaked 45 mins early!!  This fall in confidence is leading to speculation that the UK economy is now facing a double dip recession with the normally bullish service sector appearing to suffer more than expected.  Meanwhile in the US this afternoon sees release of the Chicago PMI data.

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Suppor  Resistance for Pounds to USD:

S1: 1.6343      R1: 1.6582

S2: 1.6188      R2:  1.6666

S3:  1.6104    R3:  1.6821