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Forex Analysis for Pounds to Dollars 18 August 2009

Forex Analysis GBPUSD

Forex Analysis GBPUSD

Forex Technical Analysis

Unlike its cousin the Euro, the British Pound bounced back in style today ending the forex trading session with a wide spread up bar which could loosely be described as bullish engulfing, although I hesitate to use the term given the last three months of interminable sideways grind.  In addition Sterling has today steadfastly refused to accept its fate as decreed by the BOE and dared to rise.  However, it is interesting to note that the high of the day found resistance on the 9 day moving average which although not deeply significant may be a pointer that perhaps this reversal is really only a short term squeeze and normal service will be resumed in due course as the forex market sells the British Pound once again.   However, should the USD1.66 price handle be breached, then once again we will need to consider our options carefully and to think whether this is likely to be yet another fake out or the start of a true breakout.   The USD Index would suggest that the latter may be possible as it is once again looking particularly fragile and looks set to fall so Cable may well benefit as a result.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

The important fundamental news items on the economic calendar for the UK Pound are firstly the release of the MPC minutes should give the forex market few surprises with a 0-0-9 voting split at the recent rate decision meeting.  This is followed shortly after by the CBI Industrial orders expectations which are forecast at -50 against a previous of -59, a long way from the par level which indicates an economy in expansion.  You can find a fuller explanation on my euros to pounds pair site.  Meanwhile in the US the only item of fundamental news will be the crude oil inventory figures which although are likely to come in bearish once again, will probably be ignored by the markets.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.