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Daily Forex Analysis – Pounds To Dollars 1st September 2009

Forex Technical Analysis

It is hard to see how the pounds to dollars pair is going to recover from the technically bearish  position in the short term, with all three moving averages now pressing heavily on Sterling , and coupled with the strong support which has now effectively been breached in the last few days, any recovery higher will require a sustained effort and a large dose of US dollar weakness. Yesterday’s candle ended the forex trading session as a small doji, with the low of the day finding some support in the 1.62 price region, in much the same way as towards the end of last week, suggesting that the forex market is trying to rebase at this level. However as outlined above any attempt to move higher will need to breach all three moving averages as well as break and hold above the deep consolidation area, both of which seem unlikely at present. More likely is a re-test of the 1.60 price handle in the short to medium term, which may provide a stronger platform for any reversal higher once again. However, should this level be breached then a deeper move to 1.55 or below would be a possibility in the medium term.

Fundamental Forex Analysis

As we start a new month of fundamental news for Cable, the key data this morning will be the Manufacturing PMI number which is forecast to remain above the ’50’ level, at 51.5 against a previous of 50.8, suggesting once again that we are seeing an industry in expansion rather than one in contraction. As a leading indicator it is one that the forex markets will watch closely, and indeed this picture is likely to replicated later in the US where we have the equivalent data in the afternoon for the US economy, which also shows a similar picture. The other main item of fundamental news in the UK are the Mortgage Approvals, which are expected to show a very small increase once again.  All the other items of news are covered in more detail on the euro vs dollar site or on the economic calendar by following the appropriate link.

You can keep up to date with all the latest fundamental news on the economic calendar, latest currency news and live currency charts by simply following the links.  I have also included details on an excellent ECN broker.